Military sexual assault rate higher than DOD estimates, report finds

Sexual assault prevalence in the military during and beyond the Global War on Terror is likely two to four times higher than Department of Defense estimates, a new report found.

There were more than 75,500 cases of sexual assault in the military in 2021, higher than the Pentagon’s estimate of approximately 35,900 cases that year, according to the report by the Costs of War Project at Brown University’s Watson Institute.

Researchers also estimated more than 73,600 cases occurred in 2023, a significantly higher number than DOD’s estimate of 29,000 that year.

On average, during the war in Afghanistan, 24% of active duty women and 1.9% of active duty men experienced sexual assault, the report stated, adding that racial minorities and LGBTQ+ service members also face greater risk of sexual assault.

The review of independent data noted that the range of cases being two to four times higher might actually be conservative, and that on the high end, estimates suggest the prevalence of sexual assault is 10 times higher than DOD’s figures.

“Despite efforts to address sexual assault, the prioritization of force ‘readiness’ — the ability to train and deploy troops to Iraq and Afghanistan — above all else allowed the problem of sexual assault to fester,” the report stated.

Over the last decade, the government has worked to combat sexual assault through various task force recommendations, DOD initiatives and congressional legislation, including the passage of the “I am Vanessa Guillén Act,” which removes commanders’ authority over sexual assault cases and hands it to independent prosecutors.

Data on sexual assault during the early period of the post-9/11 wars is less reliable than in later years, the report noted, because the information was only systematically tracked after the establishment of the DOD Sexual Assault Prevention and Response Office.

But independent reporting and data from other organizations that assist sexual assault survivors indicates a spike in such incidents following the invasion of Afghanistan, it added.

DOD’s latest annual report on sexual assault in the military showed a decrease in sexual assault prevalence for the first time in nearly 10 years.

“We are cautiously optimistic that our work to counter these problematic behaviors is having the intended effect,” Elizabeth Foster, the executive director of the Office of Force Resiliency, said in May when that report was released. “However, to see enduring change take hold, we must sustain our efforts to implement the reforms and initiatives approved by the [secretary of defense].”

The author of the Costs of War Project report noted that while it is difficult to definitively compare DOD data to independent studies, such initiatives provide an important counterpoint to government data.