China is rapidly advancing in missiles, nuclear weapons, and influence operations—but endemic corruption is to some degree undermining its military ambitions, according to the new edition of the Pentagon’s annual China Power report.
Its stockpile of operational nuclear warheads passed 600 in mid-2024, up from the 500-plus noted in last year’s report, and is projected to surpass 1,000 by 2030.
Chinese missile technology is also rapidly advancing.
“The PRC is developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) that will significantly improve its nuclear-capable missile forces and will require increased nuclear warhead production,” the 2024 report states.
“What we’re tracking in recent years here also is increasing diversity and capabilities like precision-strike-capable missiles with lower-yield nuclear warheads,” Ely Ratner, assistant defense secretary, said Wednesday at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The PLA rocket force, of course, also is diversifying its capabilities with those more accurate regional missiles and lower-yield warheads.”
China’s goal is to develop “more rungs on the escalation ladder in terms of how they could conduct nuclear operations,” Ratner said.“When you put all of that together, I think it raises a lot of concerns about strategic stability.”
Beijing is also pursuing conventionally armed systems that could threaten the continental United States, Hawaii, and Alaska.
Beijing’s military doctrine is evolving as well, the report said, noting the quest for “intelligentized warfare,” a concept that integrates artificial intelligence, quantum computing, and big data across all domains of combat. If that sounds similar to the Pentagon’s goal of a highly interconnected battlespace where data from drones, satellites and elsewhere speeds up operations, particularly through automation, it is.
Cognitive Domain Operations
Chinese information and influence warfare are also advancing rapidly under the rubric of cognitive domain operations. The report describes CDO as an evolution of psychological warfare, integrating AI, deepfakes, and big data analytics to target the decision-making processes of adversaries.
“The goal of CDO is to achieve what the PLA refers to as ‘mind dominance,’ using information to influence public opinion to affect change in a nation’s social system, leadership, or decision-making,” it says.
For evidence of that, just look at China’s efforts to influence January’s elections in Taiwan using AI, deep fakes, and bot accounts on social media.
Speaking at a CNAS event on Wednesday, Christopher Maier, the assistant defense secretary for special operations and low-intensity conflict, emphasized that cognitive warfare and influence operations generally were a rising threat.
“We’re starting to see more emphasis in the cognitive space, [with adversaries] in that cognitive space, not being only focused on our leaders, but indeed on populations, in a way that can be both corrosive to institutions we have, but also is really, really hard to, frankly, prevent, deter,” Maier said.
Cognitive operations pose a broad threat to democracy in general but can also pose a specific threat to military operations particularly in times of crisis, said Maier. He cited Russia’s use of information operations in Europe.
“They create a degree of uncertainty, I think, amongst not only our population, but frankly, our policymakers, our decisionmakers, commanders.”
And China is learning from Russia’s efforts.
The 2024 report describes China’s influence efforts as three-fold, or “Three Warfares”: psychological, public opinion, and legal.
In psychological warfare, CDO uses AI-driven tools to automate the creation of tailored messages that exploit societal divisions and undermine trust in leadership or institutions, that includes deepfakes.
“The PLA likely seeks to use AI-driven systems to automate and tailor disinformation campaigns, employing deepfakes to target specific individuals and groups with tailored narratives,” it says.
That feeds into the “psychological” domain, which seeks to use big data and AI to create and disseminate narratives that discredit adversary actions or promote China’s global leadership, often framing these efforts as part of its peaceful rise. That’s followed by legal warfare, aimed at legitimizing China’s actions and aims, such as control over Taiwan, in the eyes of global audiences.
Corruption
The new report is not all good news for China. Corruption is a growing problem in Chinese weapons development.
“Several leaders investigated or removed for corruption oversaw equipment development projects related to modernizing China’s ground-based nuclear and conventional missiles,” it says.
Despite efforts by Chinese President Xi Jinping to crack down on corruption, the PRC’s opaque operating culture allows it to flourish, particularly in high-value procurement activities like building and buying weapons. Between July and December 2023, at least 15 high-ranking PLA officers working in areas like ground-based missiles, were investigated or removed for corruption, according to the report.
“Recent anti-corruption efforts have focused on tightening control over procurement processes, especially in programs critical to military modernization,” it notes.
Most notable is the October dismissal of Li Shangfu, a former military administrator for aerospace.
“Li’s removal for corruption underscores the systemic issues in PLA procurement processes,” the report said.
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