ROME — Russia is moving military assets from Syria to Libya, creating a security threat in the central Mediterranean, Italy’s defense minister has said.
“Moscow is transferring resources from its Syrian base at Tartus to Libya,” Guido Crosetto told Italian daily La Repubblica.
“That is not a good thing. Russian ships and submarines in the Mediterranean are always a concern, and even more so if instead of being 1,000 kilometers away they are two steps from us,” he said.
Since Syrian dictator Bashar Assad fled rebels this month, the Russian forces backing him have moved personnel and material to two bases it manages in the country: one at the port of Tartus and one at Hmeimim air base.
Amid speculation Russia may leave the country, satellite images show Russian warships previously docked at Tartus have put out to sea, prompting theories they might head to Tobruk in eastern Libya, where Moscow has been negotiating a formal deal to use the city’s port withlocal leader Gen. Khalifa Haftar.
If Russia loses use of Tartus it would be denied a port to base naval vessels in the Mediterranean, making Libya a highly desirable alternative.
Analyst Jalel Harchaoui said that while there was no evidence of naval vessels heading for Libya – yet – there was plenty of evidence of increased Russian flights arriving.
“Russian activity in Libya has been more intense of late,” said Harchaoui, an analyst at the Royal United Services Institute think tank in London.
“Three cargo flights recently arrived from Belarus as well as at least one cargo flight direct from Russia, which reminds us that Syria was a very useful stepping stone for flights from Russia to Africa, but not essential,” he said.
Moscow already has military bases in eastern Libya which are staging posts for troops and material being sent to back military coup leaders in sub-Saharan Africa.
“We don’t know if the warships from Tartus will pop up in Libya but it already looks like Russia is increasing its presence there. And even if Russia keeps a presence in Syria, it counts as a downgrade and the Russians will likely look to recreate their level of comfort in Libya,” he said.
“If they do move into Tobruk, it would be seen as a brazen gesture by NATO and the U.S., and a sign that Haftar is no longer even pretending to listen to the West. The question is, will the U.S. and the U.K. then use coercion?”
Ben Fishman, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told Defense News, “I would be totally unsurprised if Russia is moving assets to Libya – they have been courting Haftar precisely for scenarios like this.”
He added, “I think the U.S. should go on record with any evidence it has of a Russian build-up, as it has on previous occasions.”
In recent months, Haftar has met with U.S. officials who want to discuss reunifying the eastern half of Libya he controls with western Libya, which is run by a UN-recognized administration in Tripoli.
A U.S. chargé d’affaires in Libya, Jeremy Berndt, kept channels open on Wednesday by meeting with two of Haftar’s increasingly influential sons in Benghazi.
Mohamed Eljarh, a Benghazi-based managing partner at consultancy firm Libya Desk, said, “Unlike the Syria case, there is no evidence of any formal agreement between Haftar and Russia for a Russian military presence in Libya. Russia’s access to Libya has come through informal agreements and understandings that it will supply training and equipment to the LNA.”
The Libyan National Army, or LNA, is Haftar’s military force.
Eljarh added, “I sense there could be a temporary arrangement with Russia to host more Russian assets now that Moscow in on the back foot in Syria. But Haftar has a history of saying no to the Russians when certain lines are crossed.”
This week, CNN quoted unnamed U.S. officials claiming Russian naval vessels were already moving from Tartus to Libya.
Eljarh said, “LNA contacts tell me reports have been exaggerated and that the LNA is sending signals to the U.S. saying, ‘We are worried you are targeting us with all this exaggerated media campaign – please make your intentions clear.’”
Amid talk of Russia shifting assets to Libya, analyst Claudia Gazzini said one state was being forgotten – Turkey, which provides military support to the Tripoli government.
“You would need Turkish acquiescence here,” said Gazzini, a Libya expertat the Crisis Group.
“I cannot imagine the Turks and the Russians have not discussed the matter. What have been the contours of that conversation?”
Tom Kington is the Italy correspondent for Defense News.
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