The National Instant Background Check System (NICS) numbers for firearm sales and background checks in April 2025 continue the slight decline we have been seeing over the last year. April 2025 gun sales were about 3.7% less than those of April 2024. April 2025 background checks were about 3.2% less than those of April 2024.
If you look at the last 26 years of April data for adjusted NICS, which is a close approximation of firearm sales, 2025, while lower than the last five years, is close, even a little higher, than the sales seen since the election of Barack Obama to his second term in 2012.
The importance of the political scene cannot be overstated. President Barack Obama declared that his goal was to “fundamentally transform the United States”. He came very close to doing so. The two elections of President Donald Trump, with the disastrous presidency of Obama surrogate Joe Biden during the intervening four years, have been a strong counter-revolution against the policies of the Obama/Biden presidencies. The resulting uncertainty and reasonable fear of absurd economic, international, and domestic policies sent firearm sales skyrocketing. As the second Trump term unfolds, unraveling the absurdities of the Obama/Biden policies continue to present an unknown, if more hopeful, future.
Technological change is another important factor. Decreasing costs of firearms manufacture, brought about by less expensive materials, greater automation in manufacture, and strong international and domestic competition, make very good firearms available at prices far below comparable firearms only two decades ago. The prices have to be compared in constant dollars because of inflation. It is obvious that an ordinary worker in the United States can purchase very good firearms for far less labor. Technological change continues to offer innovative and interesting firearms, helping to avoid market saturation. While there have been some times where ammunition supply was less than market demand, ammunition today is less expensive than it was even 30 years ago, and far less expensive than 60 years ago.
The last 50 years of restoring rights protected by the Second Amendment are a third reason. We are still far from the state of rights protected by the Second Amendment, which existed when the Bill of Rights was ratified in 1791.
We have restored much of what was lost from 1791 to 1970. There is permitless (Constitutional Carry) in 29 states. Handguns have become more popular than long guns. Suppressors, which appear to be close to being removed from the National Firearms Act (NFA), have been, in large part, legitimized. The Supreme Court has held, and affirmed, that the right to keep arms and to carry them for protection outside the home is an individual, fundamental, constitutionally protected right.
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