Will You Shoot the Wrong Threat?

Posted by River Knox May 28, 2026
Will You Shoot the Wrong Threat?

Editor’s Note: Be aware of your local and state as well as federal laws and how they apply to carrying firearms and self-defense. This article does not represent training advice/guidance. Please seek training from a professional firearms trainer for your self-defense needs.

One of the more difficult aspects in the application of force is threat assessment. Very often, both the aggressor and element of danger are very obvious and there is absolutely no mistaking the risk they pose to you or others. At other times, you may instantly recognize chaos unfolding all around you but not able to identify a specific threat or determine if shooting is the right course of action.

For example, you’re in a crowded convenience store and suddenly pandemonium breaks out. As you attempt to make your observation from behind the cupcake rack, people are moving rapidly in all directions. At that time, you note a scruffy looking individual adjacent to the cash register with a bag over his hand shouting at the cashier. You can’t make out what he is saying but there is no doubt that this is a hold up. Clearly, there is an element of danger as your hand goes to your holstered pistol.

Do you take action? You are observing what seems to be a threat to life, but have you seen a weapon? What about the innocent bystanders? The individual causing all this commotion strikes the cashier across the face and tells her, “Hurry up with the money!”. As he takes a lateral step and continues his diatribe, he is now fully exposed and a mere five yards away. This would be an easy shot!

A woman in eye and ear protection fires a handgun at a paper silhouette positioned only a few yards downrange. Speed at close distance is a relatively simple problem to solve through repetition and basic marksmanship drills. Threat evaluation, on the other hand, is the part of armed self-defense that takes significantly longer to develop. The concealed carrier has to read body language, look for weapons, account for bystanders, and weigh ability, opportunity, jeopardy, and preclusion before deciding to shoot. Static range work does not exercise any of those cognitive skills. Building judgmental drills into your training is what bridges the gap between fast shooting and sound decision-making.

Generally speaking, four conditions have to be met to justify the application of deadly force. The first is ability to inflict death or serious bodily injury. Having the ability, does the aggressor have opportunity, which simply means is he/she close enough to bring this destructive power to bear? The element of jeopardy must also be satisfied. Is this person acting in such a manner that would lead a rational person to believe the aggressor is likely to exercise that power to kill at any moment? Last is preclusion, which means at this point in time there is no reasonable alternative to the application of deadly force and lesser force measures are clearly impossible.

Without question, any use of force application comes with the question of, why you are taking action. You need to be able to articulate exactly why this application of force is justified, and this includes everything from low-impact, empty-hand techniques all the way up to deadly force. This is true of both law enforcement officers as well as responsible citizens. Should you apply force without sufficient justification, serious repercussions will be coming your way. On the other hand, if you hesitate, you or others may die.

Can We Teach Judgment Skills?

Generally speaking, training in the use of firearms is conducted on three different levels. The first and most basic is static level training where we refine both our marksmanship and basic operational skills. This is sometimes referred to as square range training, and it allows multiple shooters to participate simultaneously under the critical eye of the instructor staff.

Several brown cardboard silhouette targets stand on a range with spray-painted images on their chests, some showing weapons and others showing empty hands or harmless objects. Using stenciled designators turns a basic shooting drill into a genuine evaluation exercise for the concealed carrier. The shooter has to process visual information and confirm a deadly danger before deciding to engage. This approach mirrors the real-world challenge of separating an aggressor from an innocent bystander in a chaotic scene. Ability, opportunity, jeopardy, and preclusion all become relevant once the target is revealed. Building judgmental elements into static range work is one of the most accessible ways to sharpen defensive decision-making.

The training is often very structured where shooters fire a pre-determined number of rounds from a specific distance. Make no mistake about it, even highly skilled shooters train at this level to stay sharp. Although training in basic skills is something we all need to do from time to time, a great many shooters never progress beyond this or have the opportunity to test their skills in more challenging scenarios.

Next is dynamic level training where a shooter may have to perform any number of basic skills including drawing from the holster, reloading, and moving to and utilizing cover. Unlike static level training, the scenario may only be partially scripted and the shooter has to apply sound judgment, use good tactics, and perhaps even determine the appropriate number of rounds to be fired — all in a compressed time frame. Needless to say, practical marksmanship also plays heavily into the formula for success. Typically, only one shooter at a time participates in a dynamic exercise, although they can be run with a partner or even a small team.

A shooter moves laterally along a firing line with a handgun in a low ready position while passing a row of numbered and lettered silhouette targets. Dynamic drills like this one introduce decision-making into a training session in a way that static shooting never can. The partner or instructor calls out a designator, and the armed citizen must identify the correct target before engaging. Processing audible cues under time pressure mirrors the cognitive load of a real defensive encounter. Sound tactics, including the use of cover and accurate shot placement, remain just as important as fast identification. Concealed carriers who add this kind of work to their range time develop the mental habits that lead to better decisions under stress.

At the top of the pyramid, we have interactive training that can be performed with either role players or on an electronic simulator. Role playing exercises are an extremely valuable training tool and are performed with either special guns that fire marking cartridges or even Airsoft technology. If done properly, these scenarios can be especially challenging as you are dealing with a potential adversary who can think and exploit any tactical weakness.

Electronic simulators have come a very long way since I was first exposed to them more than 40 years ago. Some of the more sophisticated units have branching scenarios with different outcomes and give the participant an entirely new perspective as to how quickly things can unfold in a real-world situation. As with role-playing exercises, one has to make a determination of whether or not force is justified.

Without question, interactive training either in a role-playing exercise or on an electronic simulator can be used to assess and improve a shooter’s performance when subjected to stress. Unfortunately, interactive training is outside the realm of possibility for almost all responsible citizens and, for that matter, a great many cops.

So how do we sharpen the saw and improve our ability to assess threats in a rapidly evolving situation? With a bit of imagination, we can safely incorporate judgmental training into our dynamic training exercises and be in a better position to assess and quickly evaluate problems in the real world.

On the Static Range

Many of us train on ranges where there are strict constraints on what you can and cannot do. For example, on a public indoor range there may indeed be other shooters occupying the adjacent ranges on either side and you are limited to firing downrange to the target directly in front of you. Clearly, scanning the entire range environment for potential threats among a few no-shoot targets isn’t in the cards.

A row of cardboard targets on a range displays painted images that range from clearly deadly weapons to innocuous items, designed to test the shooter's eye before their trigger finger. Concealed carry holders rarely face plain silhouettes in real life, so why train exclusively on them? Mixing threat indicators and no-shoot designators forces the kind of mental processing that mirrors a fast-breaking encounter. The shooter must look, identify, and decide rather than simply react to a buzzer. Verbal challenges, movement, and use of cover can be layered on top to add further realism. Every drill that builds the habit of confirming a threat pays dividends if a real encounter ever arrives.

Can we work in some judgmental training exercises while training in this sort of environment? Absolutely!

Over the years I have made use of all sorts of targets, including those with multiple numbered silhouettes and colored geometric shapes. A number of target manufacturers are also putting out silhouette targets with numbered circles or shapes around the border. For the truly frugal, similar free targets can be found on the internet and printed on 8”X11” paper.

So how can you make this work? One way to do it is to work with a training partner who will designate the target or targets to be engaged. If possible, the shooter should face uprange with the handgun secured in the holster. The training partner will call out a number or color, and the shooter will pivot around, draw and engage that target. Safely reholster while facing downrange and repeat.

A paper shooting target features a central silhouette surrounded by numbered circles in various colors and basic geometric shapes along the border. Targets like this one open the door to judgmental shooting on almost any public range. A training partner calls out a color, number, or shape, and the armed citizen has to process the cue and engage the correct designator. Combining two pieces of information, such as a color and a shape, raises the cognitive demand significantly. This kind of mental work is what separates static marksmanship practice from genuine defensive preparation. Concealed carriers who train this way build the habit of confirming the right target before pressing the trigger.

I recognize that on many public ranges drawing from the holster is not allowed and doing a 180-degree pivots is totally out of the question. If that’s the case, you’ll have to dial it back a little, face the target and shoot from a ready position.

I have also met with a little success when training multiple shooters with both pistol and rifle in my law enforcement classes. In those instances, I used a target with multiple, colored geometric shapes. That gave me the option of calling out either a number or a shape to designate a target. To make it even more challenging, I might even call out “yellow” and “triangle” and have them engage more than one target. It may not sound like much, but I have given them some information they have to mentally process. The number of shots and even the shooting position can also be proscribed. The fact that you can have multiple shooters participating adds the dimension of time compression as nobody wants to be last to engage their target.

A shooter delivers rounds into a designated silhouette target on a shooting range after receiving a verbal command from a nearby instructor. Engaging on a called cue rather than a tone forces visual identification before any shots are fired. The armed citizen must locate the correct target among several, confirm the designator, and then press the trigger with accuracy. This pattern of see, decide, and act mirrors what a real defensive encounter would demand from a concealed carrier. Basic marksmanship skills still apply, but they take a back seat to cognitive processing under time pressure. Drills like this one bring genuine judgment work into a setting that might otherwise be limited to static practice.

This may not be the optimum solution to judgmental shooting, but you do indeed have to think and process information quickly. For developing cognitive skills, it beats the pants off firing at a silhouette target each time you get the shoot stimulus.

Going Dynamic

The term “dynamic” might be defined as a process characterized by constant change, activity or progress. Whenever possible, I like to include a dynamic element into the training I provide which once again, requires the shooter to think and process information.

Practical shooting competition such as IPSC and IDPA is certainly dynamic in nature, but those scenarios with a dozen bad guy targets are not especially “real world”. Without question, it’s all great fun and a great way to test your skills, but I use a much simpler format when conducting training.

A large paper target displays several humanoid silhouettes arranged side by side, each marked with a clearly visible number. Targets of this design provide an accessible path to judgmental shooting for almost any permit holder with range access. The training partner calls out a number, and the armed citizen must locate the correct silhouette before engaging it with accurate hits. This kind of work brings cognitive load into a setting that might otherwise allow only static marksmanship practice. Sound shooting fundamentals still apply, but they are layered on top of real identification work. Concealed carriers who add this format to their training build the mental habit of confirming the right target before the trigger ever moves.

In real-world situations, there are often non-combatants in close proximity to threats and in the foreground or background. Hostiles and innocent bystanders are likely to be in motion. The training scenarios I put together often involve two or three threats along with “no shoot” innocent bystanders. I often use USPSA targets which are brown cardboard on one side and white on the other. Again colors, numbers and letters can be used to designate threat targets.

Some years ago, I had a set of combat stencils that I used as target designators. I would merely lay the stencil over the target, hit it with a can of spray paint and the image of a gun, knife, radio, or hands in a surrender position would appear on it. I have also used the frame of a stripped revolver, an old knife, and gloves to create similar designators. The shooters were not allowed to view the target array until the moment of truth which of course, makes even a simple scenario a far greater challenge. Doing these same scenarios in the dark where one had to use a flashlight to identify threats made it even more stressful.

Stencil kits are available online from a variety of sources. If you have access to a copy machine, you can also create your own target designators and you are only limited to your imagination.

Train Hard, Fight Easy

As indicated early, the low-tech judgmental options outlined herein are not the ultimate solution but they can improve your ability to identify and recognize danger sooner. When participating in such drills, you will quickly find your response is a little slower when making a visual assessment of the scenario as opposed to reacting from an audible signal from a shot timer. Sorry team, but that sub-one-second draw and firing at that target directly in front of you is pretty much off the table when instead you have to use your vision to make the assessment and quickly process information.

If you get the opportunity to train on an electronic simulator or participate in well-scripted, force-on-force scenarios under the guidance of a qualified instructor, by all means go for it. Again, you will gain a new appreciation of how challenging it can be to define threats in a fast-breaking situation. Initially, you should first engage the threat that poses the most immediate threat, which is sometimes but not always the one in closest proximity.

When participating in dynamic scenarios where there may be non-combatants in the mix of targets, don’t let your guard down too soon. Remember to use cover, concealment and movement to your advantage. As Yogi Berra said, “It ain’t over till it’s over”. This is also a good time to practice those verbal challenges with the gun in hand to ensure your safety. In real life, you never know.

The ability to shoot fast and hit can certainly be a huge advantage should things get ugly. In many instances, the more challenging side of the equation is being able to positively identify a deadly threat. It remains extremely important that we don’t let our finger run ahead of our brain and recognize that every problem in front of us does not requires a shooting solution. If you can incorporate some judgmental training into the mix, you will be far better prepared to make the right decision.

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