Q3 2024 was a positive shot in the arm for shooting sports. This Analysis was written by Tom Hopper – NASGW Sr. Data Analyst.
Is there ever a time that positive sales comps do not bring confidence to a business channel? Q3 2024 was a positive shot in the arm for shooting sports. Does it signal a shift in 2024 year-over- year sales decline? Data from NASGW distributors collected through SCOPE will help shed light on market trends.
The Detail Report is available at no cost for current SCOPE subscribers, by logging into your SCOPE portal, and available for purchase by NASGW members who are not currently subscribed to SCOPE here: https://nasgwscope.org/shop/2024-q3-report?utm_campaign=InSight%20Newlsetters&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz–k52LL-JGfEQ4H8knbZPjzovMtfVV0jXhzZWriHFAgTXHhCmrQVeCUIZj-SZp4FC24psAIrfFe3MzySgKDM74JDWMe7w&_hsmi=337024365&utm_content=337024365&utm_source=hs_email&hsCtaTracking=5b948777-2c25-40e6-9501-d87c9e295ae3%7Ca1150436-d2ec-4659-9b85-75c174d6f6d8
The Overview Report is included in your NASGW membership and can be downloaded by just clicking this link: https://3841577.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na1.net/hubfs/3841577/Scope/Quarterly%20Reports/2024/SCOPE-OverviewReport-2024Q3.pdf?utm_campaign=InSight%20Newlsetters&utm_medium=email&_hsenc=p2ANqtz-_zySaHtC20bjBy_52moi09JYGc2HfGN9qOCNZ2CmuytjsE1JPy4aZ_-S8hQg8hWc5HK12g9piLBgRvcTdiEaEFGm-4CA&_hsmi=337024365&utm_content=337024365&utm_source=hs_email&hsCtaTracking=d27f04bf-0980-4d4a-9b43-fd673d26dbf6%7C778b4a24-9564-4268-895d-604ed43e9f39
The National Instant Criminal Background Checks System (NICS) supplies a baseline for Firearm sales performance and a key indicator for demand. Q3 2024 NICS checks are +4.5% to Q3 2023. The overall YTD decline is -3% vs. 2023. Seasonality appears to be helping NICS. Are footsteps at retail increasing? In either case, NICS is consistently at the new normal of +15% compared to 2019.
FIREARMS:
The decline in handgun shipments ended for Q3 2024. Handgun shipments are +8.5% to Q3 2023. Semi-automatic handguns are the largest firearms segment at 81% of all handgun shipments. Revolvers are down to 2023. Handgun inventory weeks of supply increased through Q3 2024 as the rolling 13-week average shipments slowed. Handgun shipments grew into August but declined through September.
Year-over-year rifle shipments show positive comps in Q3 2024 compared to Q3 2023. Rifle shipments show strong growth into August. Hunting season had a positive impact. Q3 2024 was +19% to Q3 2023. Bolt action has the top share of rifles at 41% of Q3 shipments. Seasonality and hunting season helped Bolt action shipments. Lever action rifles & rimfire hold 2nd & 3rd share, respectively. Bolt, lever & rimfire represent 80% of rifle shipments.
MSR shipments had a great Q3 2024 with shipments +19% to Q3 2023. The rolling 13-week average shipments show a positive increase moving through Q3 2024. Weeks of supply levels are dropping and are at a reasonable level.
Shotgun shipments for Q3 2024 are up +10% to Q3 2023. The rolling 13-week average shipments show strong growth through Q3 2024. The inventory weeks of supply show a nominal drop in September. Overall shotgun shipments were strong in Q3 2024. Semi-automatic field and tactical shotguns had a strong Q3 2024. Pump action shotguns had a rough Q3 led by declining tactical shipments.
AMMUNITION:
Ammunition shipments leveled off in Q3 2024. Overall ammunition shipments were down -9% to Q3 2023. Inventory weeks of supply are increasing through Q3 2024. The rolling 13-week average shipments declined through Q3 2024. Centerfire ammunition keeps its +70% share of the category. Centerfire pistols and rifles shipped at 47%-53%. Top calibers, 223 Rem/5.56 NATO & 9 MM continue to drive high shipping percentages of all calibers. Average weekly shipments in centerfire decline through Q3 2024. Finding ammunition is much easier than in previous years. Beware of potential price increases and supply constraints. Ammunition stressors materialize later and slower.
OPTICS:
Overall, optics shipments are -7% compared to Q3 2023. Rifle scopes and reflex sights drive over 65% of optics shipment dollars in Q3 2024. Inventory weeks of supply dropped to approximately 25 weeks as Q3 average weekly shipments increased. Optics shipments have been declining through 2024 but show a strong rebound into Q3 2024. Rolling 13-week average shipments for observation grew rapidly through Q3 2024. Inventory weeks of supply level dropped to the lowest levels in 12 months. Rifle scopes’ average weekly shipments grew steadily through Q3 2024. Rifle scope shipments have been declining since November 2023, but turned around in Q3 2024. Reflex inventory weeks of supply grew through Q3 2024 and is high at approximately 30 weeks.
GENERAL MARKET:
Inflation continues to change consumer spending. Discretionary income is declining. In addition, the stressors of an election year, world events, regulatory changes, or potential changes and uncertainty are slowing consumer activity. As the market contracts to pre-covid levels, we must continue to make informed decisions.
While Q3 shows positive change, Q4 2023 had a huge spike coincidental with the Israeli / Hamas war. Current trends do not compare to that lift. In addition, the Q4 2023 spike had carryover implications in Q1 2024. Don’t let one good quarter blur the trend and outlook.
The landscape continues to evolve and change. Let us track those changes and plan accordingly. If there is anything I can do to be an extension of your team, please reach out to This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.
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