Extreme weather is creating fertile ground for conflict in multiple regions of Africa, the Pentagon’s top Africa official said Tuesday.
It’s also threatening the U.S.’s ability to maintain military bases like Camp Lemmonier, Djibouti, on the continent’s central east coast, said Maureen Farrell, deputy assistant defense secretary for African affairs.
“Djibouti is one of the hottest countries on earth, and our ability to operate and engage in Djibouti is significantly affected by climate stressors in the Horn of Africa,” Farrell told reporters at a Defense Writers Group meeting.
For example, high temperatures regularly force sailors stationed at Camp Lemonnier—a Navy expeditionary base of roughly 4,000 uniformed and civilian personnel that stages troops for missions in Africa, Europe and Asia—to suspend physical training to prevent heat stress.
At the same time, “there’s a number of African conflicts that we could point to that are over water and land rights,” Farrell said.
That includes competition between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan for fresh water. And in countries like Somalia, drought is pushing devastated farming communities into the arms of al-Qaida’s most well-funded affiliate.
“So we see climate-stressed areas to be a wonderful recruiting opportunity for terrorist groups,” Farrell said. “And some of the previous droughts that have taken place in Somalia, we have seen an uptick in al-Shabab recruiting, for example, which we correlate directly with the lack of other livelihood opportunities for the communities there.”
The U.S. military has taken steps to alleviate some of the challenges, she said, such as in Chad, where the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has helped local forces floodproof their bases, after years of drought hardened the soil to the point that heavy rains will immediately accumulate rather than soak into the earth.
But while the Biden administration has embraced climate change policy in its work to deter conflict in African nations, there are questions about how a second Trump administration—with a president who has dismissed climate concerns in the past—will approach U.S. engagement in Africa.
“The consequences of not engaging on climate issues are quite serious and far reaching that affect not only U.S. interests, but also those of our allies and partners,” Farrell said.
And whether the Trump administration wants to call it climate change or not, she said, the consequences are unavoidable.
“These are all the same issues. Every administration has the prerogative to put whatever branding on their special initiatives,” she said. “So whatever you call it, these changes in the environment, in the terrain, and the challenges resulting from regional conflicts are unchanging.”
Farrell did not indicate a concern that current Africa policy will be gutted, instead pointing out that Congress has funded the Biden administration’s efforts in a bipartisan manner.
“You’ll notice the way that I’m talking about this is in terms of our strategic resilience, changing strategic environments,” she said. “All of those are facts. Those have nothing to do with the political branding that we decide here in Washington to place on some of these interests.”
The next administration might shift to buzzwords like “sustainability” and “resiliency” rather than focus on man-made climate shifts, she said.
“What we are doing in terms of the way we are engaging on it, I would expect to continue, but perhaps just with a different talking point around it, because the challenges are the same,” Farrell said.
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