PARIS — Russia is seen ready to execute a “large scale” troop move about one year after the conclusion of a ceasefire or peace in Ukraine, Dutch Minister of Defence Ruben Brekelmans said in a speech at a security conference on Thursday, citing the military intelligence service of the Netherlands.
Brekelmans asked his audience in the Dutch town of Baarn to imagine Russian President Vladimir Putin stationing hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with the Baltic countries for a large-scale exercise. Ukraine’s experience shows “we know only one week in advance” whether such a move would indeed be an exercise or a preparation for an attack, he said.
The Dutch threat assessment appears even more acute than warnings by European Commissioner for Defence Andrius Kubilius that Russia may be ready to test NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause by 2030, citing Danish and German intel. The European Commission is pushing European Union countries for more defense spending to build up a credible military deterrent to Russia by the end of the decade.
Russia will be able to free up “significant” military resources in case the war in Ukraine stops or freezes, thus increasing its military capability to pose a credible threat to NATO countries, the Danish Defence Intelligence Service assessed in a February report. In that case, Russia would be ready to fight a regional war in the Baltic Sea area within about two years, according to the DDIS.
“We don’t know exactly how Putin will test NATO,” Brekelmans said. “We do know that if Putin, after Ukraine, attacks a neighboring country that is in NATO, then we are part of it. Then the Netherlands must also help defend NATO territory. Our membership of NATO provides the Netherlands protection, but also a responsibility. An attack on one is an attack on all.”
The Netherlands has based troops in Lithuania as part of a NATO deployment, and has F-35s jets stationed in Estonia until the end of March for air policing duties over the Baltic Sea region.
Brekelmans said Putin has repeatedly said he wants revenge for the breakup of the Soviet Union, and wants to restore its sphere of influence. The Dutch minister said Russia only continues to invest more in its war industry and in recruiting soldiers.
He said the Russian economy is running entirely on the war industry, and the country will face “a big problem” should thousands of soldiers return to society with post-traumatic stress disorder.
“In short, Putin has the intention, capabilities and incentives to continue his aggression beyond Ukraine,” Brekelmans said.
The Netherlands is considering what security guarantees are needed to ensure a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine, and needs to be ready for potential participation in a European military mission there, should that political decision be taken, according to the minister.
“Neither are on the table yet, but it is essential that we prepare,” Brekelmans said. “Especially now that we have to take into account the unpredictability of U.S. President Donald Trump. And the U.S. demand that Europe take more responsibility for its own security.”
Brekelmans said the Netherlands faces almost daily hybrid attacks, including cyberattacks on hospitals and maritime ports, espionage and sabotage preparations. He cited cases of unidentified drones near military bases, fishing boats that photograph petrochemical installations, and vessels on the North Sea that are secretly mapping internet cables, gas pipes and wind-energy parks.
He said the Netherlands is in fact no longer living in peace, but finds itself in a grey zone in between war and peace. “We’re not at war with Russia, but Russia, in hybrid form, is with us.”
The Netherlands earlier this week announced plans to increase its defense personnel to 100,000 in the coming five years, up from 74,000 now. The force may ultimately grow to 200,000, which Brekelmans said would be the biggest increase since the end of the Cold War. To be able to scale up or down quickly, about a third of the new personnel would be reservists, the minister said.
Rudy Ruitenberg is a Europe correspondent for Defense News. He started his career at Bloomberg News and has experience reporting on technology, commodity markets and politics.
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